The A&E Admissions Forecasting Tool

16 Jun 2022
NHS England stand mini theatre

NHS England and Faculty have partnered on the development of a national A&E admissions demand forecasting tool. This tool has now been rolled out to more than 800 users with the vast majority within NHS providers.

This has been a collaboration effort with operational end-users in pilot NHS trusts, with whom we engaged throughout the process to design a product that provides valuable intelligence to front line decision makers. The aspiration is for the information to be used to help with balancing emergency pressures with elective activity.

The tool utilises sophisticated modelling techniques forecast admissions from A&E and calculate the uncertainty around the forecasts up to three weeks in advance. Data sources on factors such as COVID-19 and public holidays as well as the extent to which these factors explain the forecast.

Achut Manandhar, Senior Data Scientist - NHS England and NHS Improvement
Dimitiris Pipinis, Senior Economic Manager - NHS England and NHS Improvement
Elizabeth Johnstone, Analytics Developer - NHS England and NHS Improvement